Note: This article was originally published 8/1/2017 - for our April 2021 updates see this section below.
URL to original article: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/01/four-major-us-cities-ring-housing-bubble-alarm.html
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Home price gains are accelerating again, and in some cities those values are overheating.
Four of the nation’s largest cities are now considered overvalued, according to CoreLogic. Home prices in Denver, Houston, Miami and the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area now exceed sustainable levels.
To determine if a market is overvalued, CoreLogic compares current prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local economic fundamentals like disposable income. An overvalued market is one in which home prices are at least 10 percent higher than that level. The rest of the top 10 markets are considered “at value,” but none are undervalued, as prices are higher in all of them compared with a year ago.
“With no end to the escalation in sight, affordability is rapidly deteriorating nationally,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “While low mortgage rates are keeping the market affordable from a monthly payment perspective, affordability will likely become a much bigger challenge in the years ahead until the industry resolves the housing supply challenge.”
Home prices rose 6.7 percent nationally in June compared with June 2016. That is a slightly higher annual gain than May. Prices are now up nearly 50 percent from the trough of the housing crash in March 2011.
The soaring gains now are due to a historically short supply of affordable homes for sale. The number of homes for sale in June was 11 percent lower than a year ago, according to Realtor.com.
“As of Q2 2017, the unsold inventory as a share of all households is 1.9 percent, which is the lowest Q2 reading in over 30 years,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic.
While the price gains are widespread, all real estate is still local, and some previously hot markets are actually cooling off. San Francisco is considered at value, with prices up just 5.3 percent, compared with an 8.7 percent annual gain in Denver. The New York City metropolitan area is seeing values up just over 3 percent annually and is considered at a sustainable level, but Houston, while seeing the same price gain is overvalued based on its economy.
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Our update as of December 2020:
The real estate market does now appear to be leveling off due to the pandemic, but there is still high demand for homes in northern New Jersey and thus prices continue to remain higher than they were in previous years. However, as the full effects of the pandemic have not yet been seen, we expect some changes to home prices in 2021. A new article on that topic will be posted shortly, and a link to it will be added here when it becomes available.
Market data summary and recent trends
My team regularly collects some key stats about the volume of real estate transactions and sales taking place here in Bergen County, New Jersey. Some of it comes from the MLS data feeds, while other portions are hand-picked and recorded here to provide a more complete view of how the markets are doing. The table below provides a high-level summary of the latest key stats we are keeping track of:
|Date||Active Listings||Pending Sale||Homes Sold (6 mos.)||Market Total|
Note: this table is updated weekly.
Current trends in April 2021 home sales data
Report as of 4/29/21: The homes under contract stat rose up again for the TWELFTH week in a row and homes listed for sale also increased noticeably. It is now clearly a rising market and homebuying activity is robust. What is encouraging is that while the supply of homes is tight in Bergen County, it is not getting tighter so prices should be pretty stable right now, barring any sudden shocks in the markets. I strongly recommend people to tour (virtual or in person) homes that interest them now and be prepared to bid quickly due to the turnover rates we are seeing. If you are interested in checking out some really unique homes, consider checking out my showcase NJ luxury homes page to find motivation for touring homes soon!
Report as of 4/22/21: The homes under contract stat is now up for the ELEVENTH week in a row and the active listings of homes for sale went up again nicely, solidifying the market growth trend we are now seeing. April is a very lively time for real estate for sure, with sellers eager to capitalize on their home values and manage their next investment opportunity as well as new lifestyle and location choices before the summer season kicks off. If you have not started touring (virtual or onsite) any homes in Bergen county yet, it is not too late yet to take a look at Bergen county homes for sale.
Report as of 4/14/21: The number of homes under contract is now up for the TENTH week in a row PLUS there is an increase in active listings of homes for sale again, which reaffirms the trend we started seeing recently. This month is turning out to be very lively indeed, with more new home listings coming to market now as people realize that there is ample opportunity for sellers to recoup their original investment along with a decent capital gain that exceeds costs and improvements on the property. If you are still wondering about buying a home in Bergen county, now would be a smart time to take a look at my Bergen county real estate listings page.
Report as of 4/8/21: The number of homes under contract is now up for the ninth week in a row! Not only that, we are also seeing increase in active listings of homes for sale, and at a pace that now exceeds the rate of increase on pending sales, suggesting that prices may only rise slightly, rather than seeing anything dramatic which is good news in terms of transaction volume overall. It would actually be an ideal situation for both buyers and sellers! Keeping fingers crossed that these will hold up as the month of April continues...
Recent trends in March 2021 home sales data
Report as of 3/3/21: The number of active home listings is only slightly lower than a week ago, but the pending sales of homes (i.e. under contract) continued to rise for the third consecutive week, which strengthens the notion that a tightening of inventory is building up. This will likely keep home prices steady or even increase slightly. Completed sales transactions continued their normal winter season slide. As noted last week, we believe that when the spring thaw comes, the markets should become more active. If you have started making plans to sell your home or buy a new one soon, please call Tom today at 201-637-7484 to discuss how you can take advantage of the coming opportunities!
Report as of 3/10/21: The number of active home listings is a tad lower than last week, but the pending sales of homes continued its rise for the FOURTH consecutive week, which clearly shows that the inventory of homes is becoming tighter. This should keep home prices increasing gradually over time. Closed sales deals continued their normal winter season pattern. As we have been saying last few weeks, when the spring season kicks off, the markets should warm up as well. Time to get ready to make the deals happen! :)
Report as of 3/18/21: The number of active home listings is still light, but the pending sales of homes continued its rise for the FIFTH consecutive week, and active listings finally JUMPED UP by 2.5 percent which is signaling that the spring thaw in northern NJ real estate has begun! This means that home prices will stay where they are, and likely begin to climb up once the turnaround has reached full pace. Closed sales deals are still at their seasonal normal lull but remember that this is a trailing indicator of market activity so as the pending home sales rise and closings are completed this figure will move upward as well. Thus I am expecting to see more clients visiting my showcase homes soon, so be sure to reach out to me soon to reserve your spot in the line!
Report as of 3/26/21: The pending sales transactions number continued its rise for the seventh week in a row, which means that a rising number of homes have interested buyers who have made bids that the sellers have accepted and they are now awaiting the closing of the deals. This is highly encouraging as we are now approaching the end of March and what we hope to see is more homes being listed for sale in April. If this does not happen right away, that could be an indication of a tighter supply of homes coming soon, which could lead home prices higher. But the jury is still out on that so we shall wait to see how it goes next month.
Report as of 3/31/21: The pending sales transactions number rose for the eighth week in a row, and when that number is combined with the relatively stable number of active home listings, these stats bear evidence that homes are getting sold quickly after being listed. Since we are now at the end of the month of March, we can only hope to see more new homes being listed for sale in April to help sustain the inventory. Otherwise we will be stuck with a tightening supply of homes, which is almost certain to lead home prices higher this summer. In any case, it is a great time to be selling homes and there is no sign of a cooling off anytime soon!
Observed trends in February 2021 home sales data
Report as of 2/4/21: The number of homes available, sold, or pending sale are all lower than the week before, but not by much. Since these are trailing indicators, except for the currently active listings figure, the total count is lower due not by just the current activity but also reflects the normal low ebb in real estate transactions around the holiday season. Also, seasonal fluctuations tend to drift downward in the winter months, followed by an uptick in the spring, so we are not worried at this point. The next few weeks will show us how long this cycle will last before home sales start to thaw again.
Report as of 2/11/21: The number of homes available for sale, and sold in the last six months, are both slightly lower than last week, indicating the same pattern as detected last couple of weeks. This is consistent with the 2021 outlook published by the NAR for Q1 of this year. The remainder of this month and March will show us how long this pattern keeps up before home sales start to climb as predicted by the NAR and from our own independent observations.
Report as of 2/18/21: While the number of homes sold and those that are available for sale dropped slightly this past week, deals that are pending closing went up slightly, which seems to be in line with what we have seen so far during this season. We also had several snowstorms in recent days, which demonstrates how bad winter weather conditions can have an adverse impact on home sales in general. But since the pending home sales total actually went up slightly during this past week, we believe that there is nothing to be worried about at this point.
Report as of 2/26/21: The number of active home listings continues to slide slightly, but the pending sales of homes continued its rise for the second consecutive week, suggesting a tightening of inventory. Whenever the supply of existing homes for sale goes down, home prices tend to go up. However, the sales figures continue to be weak which is normal in the middle of the winter season. We remain optimistic that when the spring thaw comes, we will see a pickup in the market activity concurrent with home prices holding their ground. So, keep making plans for your next home purchase or if you have been putting off selling your home, now is the time to start getting ready!
Observed Trends per January 2021 home sales data
As of the first week in this month, the available inventory of homes for sale is still dipping, but the historical sales stats show that homes continue to be bought and sold in the real estate marketplace. We are hoping to see a gradual turn in the active listings and pending sales numbers as new homes become available for sale now that the holiday season is behind us. However, it will likely take several weeks for this to be reflected within the data.
Report as of 1/13/21: As week number two of January windws down, we are seeing some uplift in the number of active listings and also the total number of homes sold within the last 180 days. This appears to confirm our expectatios for the gradual uptick in the real estate transaction counts in the post-holiday period. More updates to come next week on this...
Report as of 1/20/21: The sales side of the stats are holding up, though the slight decline in the number of homes currently available for sale and those that are in pending status suggests a gradual tightening of inventory, which indicates that home prices will remain stable due to continued high demand for homes in Bergen county. Whether this is part of a larger trend remains to be seen. We will continue to monitor this as well as factor in any anecdotal feedback we may get from our real estate colleagues and vendors, and we will incorporate that into our upcoming market analyses as this winter season continues...
Report as of 1/28/21: The home sales data has been stable, with a very slight increase in the numbers which seems to support the notion that we have passed the low point typically seen around the holiday season of each year. As the month of February approaches, our focus is now on new business activity and working on leads as well as overseeing the construction of new homes that we want ready by the summer season. We are hoping that the data will confirm these trends as we move toward the spring season, so the stats for February will give us an early indication of how the year is shaping up for homebying activity. Stay tuned for more updates on this!
Other Bergen county home sales data on the way
We are working on adding other similar tabular data into this page soon, partially related to the full listing data section at the bottom of this page, to give readers a better insight into the real estate activity taking place in Bergen County. It is our hope that the new data will prove useful for you in your planning for buying or selling your home in the near future. If you would like to see something in particular in our data sets please be sure to let me know via my contact page.
Overview of latest Bergen County real estate market activity
Below you will find some listing data about the homes that we have observed in the marketplace within the last six months in the county of Bergen, NJ. The listings are split between currently active homes, homes under contract at this moment, and finally the homes that were sold within the last 6 months. We hope that you will find this information helpful in your own analysis of the market conditions and how it might impact your decision regarding home buying or home selling in Bergen County NJ in the near future. If you have any questions please feel free to contact me at any time.